Fitch Ratings on Monday said the shock to economic activity from the latest wave of COVID-19 pandemic will be less severe than the one in 2020, but recovery is likely to be delayed as economic activity dropped in April-May. The global rating agency said there are growing indications that the latest wave of COVID-19 infections will add to risks among financial institutions (FIs) and anticipates that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may introduce additional measures to support the financial sector if indications of economic stress mount.
Ratings firm Fitch on Wednesday assigned a stable outlook to the Indian auto components sector in 2012 and said it is expected to perform well on the back of demand from original equipment manufacturers for localised content.
The Indian banks' total net level of non-performing loans could be double their reported level, even though asset quality has improved over the years, according to a report by Fitch Ratings India Ltd.
However, the budget lacked very specific measures detailing how this will be achieved," the statement said.
Despite a significant improvement in asset quality, the country's banking industry might see its bad assets inching up in the months ahead, particularly in retail segment, global rating agency Fitch said.Rising bad loan assets had prompted many banks to sell their sticky assets to asset reconstruction companies, in order to transfer the risk and clean up their balance sheets.
The rating agency said it has affirmed and withdrawn long and short term Issuer Default Rating of 'BB' and 'B' and 'BB-' rating on Corus' Euro 800 million 7.5 per cent senior notes.
With a slew of new players entering the Indian small car market, segment leaders like Maruti Suzuki India and Hyundai Motor India will face challenge to their domination.
Sitharaman's Budget missed deficit target for the third year in a row, pushing shortfall to 3.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal as compared to 3.3 per cent previously planned.
Rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's foreign and local currency ratings at 'BB+'
Fitch Solutions sees RBI keeping benchmark interest rates unchanged during the fiscal to March 2022 following its decision to buy Rs 1 lakh crore of government bonds. "We had initially expected another policy rate cut to arrest the rise in government bond yields since the Union Budget announcement in February. "However, having an explicit bond purchase guidance from the RBI following the announcement of the G-SAP will also achieve a similar effect, if not even be more effective than a rate cut on capping the increase in bond yields," it said in a note. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its policy repurchase (repo) rate unchanged at 4 per cent at its monetary policy meeting on April 7.
Global rating agency Fitch has upgraded its support ratings for several Indian banks, including ICICI Bank, HDFC, Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank, Bank of India and IDBI among others.
State-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) on Thursday entirely subscribed to the Rs 5,000 crore bond issue of Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) at a coupon rate of 7.75 per cent, said sources privy to the development.
The rating agency revised the outlook for EXIM, SBI, Bank of Baroda, Bank of Baroda (New Zealand), Bank of India, Canara Bank, Punjab National Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank while affirming their ratings. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed IDBI Bank Ltd's (IDBI) rating, while maintaining the outlook at negative.
The upward revision in growth forecast for current fiscal comes in the backdrop of GDP expanding 8.2 per cent in April-June quarter, higher than Fitch's expectation of 7.7 per cent.
Standard and Poor's had in April lowered India's rating outlook to negative from stable.
Fitch said the full implications of Patel's resignation will only become clearer once there is some indication of the RBI's policy approach under his replacement, Shaktikanta Das
Following the footsteps of ICRA and CRISIL on rating corporate governance, credit rating agency Fitch will also take up such an exercise soon.
Vodafone Idea will gradually lose market share given its weak balance sheet and limited financial flexibility, says Fitch.
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
Demand for passenger vehicles, which has been on a downhill so far this year, will continue to remain sluggish through the first half of 2014 due to high interest rates which has weakened consumer sentiment, says a Fitch Ratings report.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday said the resurgence of COVID-19 infections may delay India's economic recovery, but won't derail it, as it kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook. It projected a 12.8 per cent recovery in GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2022 (FY22), moderating to 5.8 per cent in FY23, from an estimated contraction of 7.5 per cent in 2020-21. Fitch had in June last year revised outlook for India to 'negative' from 'stable' on grounds that the coronavirus pandemic had significantly weakened the country's growth outlook and exposed the challenges associated with a high public debt burden.
Rating agency Fitch on upgraded outlook of 10 financial institutionals, including SBI, ICICI Bank and EXIM Bank of India to 'stable' from 'negative' earlier following revision in the country's outlook.
With their weak metrics and high bad loans, India's state-run banks have not been investor favourites
International rating agency Fitch said on Tuesday the change in India's sovereign rating is constrained by the high level of fiscal deficit and its review will be done after the budget for 2005-06 has been presented.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said the plan to privatise two state-owned banks in the current financial year ending March 2022 could face delays amid renewed challenges for the Indian banking sector due to the second wave of Covid-19. The government in the Budget announced plans to privatise two public-sector banks. NITI Aayog has been entrusted with the task of selecting the banks and one general insurance company for the privatisation.
Global credit rating agency Fitch upgraded outlook for the Indian telecom sector from 'negative' to 'stable'.
The proposed reorganisation plan by Reliance Industries Ltd to transfer its refining, marketing and petrochemical (oil-to-chemicals) businesses to a wholly-owned subsidiary is a step towards facilitating participation by strategic investors in the unit, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday. The reorganisation of the business in Reliance O2C Limited (O2C) "will have a neutral impact on RIL's credit metrics and rating," it said in a statement. The transfer will be on a "slump sale basis", subject to attaining the requisite approvals.
Despite December's deal by U.S. politicians to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" of spending cuts and tax hikes, Fitch's head of sovereign ratings, David Riley, said pressure on the country's rating was increasing.
Fitch frowns at government pay hikes.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
According to Fitch rupee is expected to weaken to 72 to a dollar by the end of December 2019, and further to 73 by December 2020, from 69.82 to a dollar in end December 2018.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
Struggling to meet budget targets, the government had in the just concluded fiscal asked cash-rich PSUs to pay second interim dividend as well as undertake share buyback.
"Fitch Ratings has placed Punjab National Bank's (PNB) Viability Rating of 'bb' on Rating Watch Negative (RWN), following the large fraud reported by PNB," the US-based agency said in a statement.
Stating that a weak fiscal position continues to constrain India's sovereign ratings, Fitch said the next government's medium-term fiscal policy will be of particular importance from a rating perspective.
The CreditWatch action follows Vedanta's announcement that it would acquire a controlling stake in India-based oil and gas company Cairn India Ltd.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth estimate to 12.8 per cent for the fiscal year beginning April 1 from its previous estimate of 11 per cent, saying its recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected. In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said revision is on the back of "a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance and better virus containment." "India's second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent," it said. "Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory."
Fitch Ratings says in a report published on Thursday that the spillover effects of a weaker rupee have not significantly hurt India's creditworthiness, and hence would not trigger any rating action as this point.
